Monday, September 28, 2009

I’ll calmly push the panic button

Let's start with some congratulations to my dear friends and co-authors of this bits board. One for being a winner (PS), and the other (BE) for doubling the number of parliamentarians, good luck and take care of this country and the big clashes that are to be laid ahead.

Although I'm congratulating their victories, almost like a loser, I'm nothing of the sort. And I'll leave it clear, that I left my voting paper as it was delivered to me. The reason I folded the paper into four's without ever picking the pen, which was in the booth. Came to me as a last minute dough, in our political options. Dough that I now see it wasn't only my own, many felt the same tingling in the tips of their fingers as they attempted to pick the pen.

But I'm here to talk about the consequences of the public decisions and not what came to cause it. (Remember that winners write History, not blanks)

Here is the output of the election:

(You may see the many options I decided to not to choose from)


Party or Coalition

Votes

Percentage

parliamentarians
(Final result to be presented in the

7th of October, due to emigrants votes)

PS

2 068 665

36,56%

96

PPD/PSD

1 646 097

29,09%

78

CDS-PP

592 064

10,46%

21

BE

557 109

9,85%

16

CDU (PCP+PEV)

446 174

7,88%

15

PCTP/MRPP

52 633

0,93%

0

MEP

25 338

0,45%

0

PND

21 380

0,38%

0

MMS

16 580

0,29%

0

PPM

14 997

0,27%

0

FEH (MPT+PH)

12 025

0,21%

0

PNR

11 614

0,21%

0

PPV

8 485

0,15%

0

PTP

4 789

0,08%

0

POUS

4 320

0,08%

0

MPT

3 241

0,06%

0


This result shows the PS victory, as I stated, but without an absolute majority (having 124 parliamentarians), which means that to govern PS needs to either join forces with (order of most likely):

  1. CDU and BE, having PSD and CDS refraining themselves against any coalition
    1. The biggy with this situation is that, we would have a left-ideology government against a right-ideology opposition; where the government will probably destroy any financial security we still have, with a bunch of socialist policies. Having the government dissuaded by the end of 2 years.
    2. The BE would now have a shot at governing, since its creation 10 years ago. If it does well, I'll be the first to applaud but if disappoints it will be hell on earth. Overlooking of course the demagogies throughout the campaign, where the leader said he would never form government with the leader of the PS party.
    3. Manuela Ferreira Leite abandons the Presidency of PSD (happy point), with PSD loses the Lisbon Election. (not so Happy now)
    4. A solely right-ideology in the opposition, will increase the number of right-extremist in the population.
  2. Forming of a Central government (PS and PSD), having BE, CDU and CDS has opposition.
    1. Manuela Ferreira Leite leaves the presidency of PSD no matter the next election. (happy point)
    2. If things go the wrong way, it's probable that neither party wins the next legislative election, the other way around… It's not likely to happen, for it only last 2 years;
    3. CDS and BE will be the ones to get better results of this possibility, CDU? I don't know, only time will tell
    4. There will be a greater division on the public opinion, into right and left ideologies.

Although there are other options available I don't see them happening without a big manifestation in the streets, of people who would be fucked by the ones they elected.

And remember that this is the product of a young voter's mind and not of any political analysts. Any opposing opinion will, be welcomed, analyzed, debated and taken into account for future articles.

Lestat of Lioncourt

P.S.: Whatever happens, from now on… it will be hard, so prepare yourself properly. This is a friendly advice


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